1990~2021年中国帕金森病疾病负担分析及2035年预测:与全球的对比分析*

doi:10.3870/j.issn.1672-0741.25.07.033

华中科技大学学报（医学版） ›› 2026, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (3): 378-386.doi: 10.3870/j.issn.1672-0741.25.07.033

1990~2021年中国帕金森病疾病负担分析及2035年预测:与全球的对比分析^*

赵自豪^1,2, 魏涛华^1,2,3△, 杨文明^1,2,3, 钱南南^1,2, 宋宇琪^1,2, 王玮琦^1,2, 李杨阳^1,2, 徐福琳^1,2

¹安徽中医药大学第一附属医院神经内科,合肥 230031
²安徽中医药大学第一临床医学院,合肥 230031
³新安医学教育部重点实验室,合肥 230031

收稿日期:2025-07-14 出版日期:2026-06-15 发布日期:2026-06-17
通讯作者: ^△E-mail:weitaohua@foxmail.com
作者简介:赵自豪,男,1998年生,硕士研究生,E-mail:824932959@qq.com
基金资助:
^*国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.82305185,No.U22A20366);第七批全国老中医药专家学术经验继承项目(No.国中医药人教函[2022]76号);杨文明全国名老中医药专家传承工作室;安徽省自然科学基金青年项目(No.2108085QH367);安徽省高校自然科学基金重点项目(No.KJ2021A0555);安徽省高等学校省级质量工程项目(No.2023jyxm1168);安徽省中医药传承创新科研项目(No.2024CCCX031);安徽中医药大学青年科技英才培育项目(No.2021qnyc08);安徽中医药大学新安医学教育部重点实验室开放基金项目(No.2020xayx12)

Burden of Parkinson’s Disease in China from 1990 to 2021 and Projections to 2035: A Comparative Analysis with Global Data

Zhao Zihao^1,2, Wei Taohua^1,2,3△, Yang Wenming^1,2,3 et al

¹Department of Encephalopathy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Hefei 230031, China
²First Clinical Medical College of Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei 230031, China
³Key Laboratory of Xin’an Medical Science, Ministry of Education, Hefei 230031, China

Received:2025-07-14 Online:2026-06-15 Published:2026-06-17
Contact: ^△E-mail:weitaohua@foxmail.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析1990~2021年中国帕金森病(Parkinson’s disease,PD)的疾病负担变化特征,并与全球水平进行对比,预测2035年疾病流行趋势,为PD防控策略制定提供科学依据。方法数据来源于2021年全球疾病负担研究(Global Burden of Disease Study 2021,GBD 2021),以年龄标化发病率(age-standardized incidence rate,ASIR)、年龄标化死亡率(age-standardized mortality rate,ASMR)、年龄标化伤残调整生命年率(age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate,ASDR)为核心指标,采用Joinpoint回归模型计算年度变化百分比(APC)与平均年度变化百分比(AAPC),通过贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型(Bayesian age-period-cohort model,BAPC)预测2035年疾病趋势。结果 1990~2021年,中国PD的ASIR增速显著快于全球,2021年达24.34/10万人年,为全球同期水平的1.56倍,男性标化发病率约为女性的1.5倍;中国PD的ASMR总体呈下降趋势(AAPC=-0.6186,P<0.01),2021年为5.03/10万人年,略高于全球的4.81/10万人年,死亡率性别差异由研究初期的女性高于男性转为末期的男性高于女性。中国与全球PD疾病负担均集中于70~75岁年龄段,中国≥85岁人群死亡率增幅显著(男性近3倍,女性超1倍)。模型预测显示,至2035年,中国与全球的PD发病数、ASMR及ASDR均将持续上升,中国PD标化发病与疾病负担水平仍高于全球平均水平。结论中国PD疾病负担较重,发病增长态势严峻,男性及高龄老年群体是防控工作的重点目标人群。未来应结合人口老龄化进程与医疗服务水平提升,针对性强化高危人群早期筛查、危险因素控制及老年患者全病程慢病管理,以有效减轻PD带来的公共卫生压力。

关键词: 帕金森病, 疾病负担, 预测分析

Abstract: Objective To analyze the trends of Parkinson’s disease(PD)burden in China from 1990 to 2021,compare them with global levels,and predict the epidemic trend of PD in 2035,to provide a scientific basis for formulating PD prevention and control strategies. Methods Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021(GBD 2021).The age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate(ASDR)were selected as core indicators.The Joinpoint regression model was applied to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC),and the Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was used to predict the disease trend in 2035. Results From 1990 to 2021,the ASIR for PD in China increased at a significantly faster rate than the global average,reaching 24.34 per 100000 person-years in 2021,which was 1.56 times the global average;the ASIR in males was approximately 1.5 times that in females.The overall ASMR of PD in China showed a downward trend(AAPC=-0.6186,P<0.01),with a value of 5.03 per 100000 person-years in 2021,slightly higher than the global level of 4.81 per 100000 person-years.The gender difference in mortality shifted from higher in females at the beginning to higher in males at the end of the study period.The disease burden of PD in both China and globally was concentrated in the 70-75 years age group,and the mortality rate of the population aged ≥85 years in China increased significantly(nearly threefold in males and more than double in females).The model prediction showed that by 2035,the number of incident cases,ASMR and ASDR of PD in China and globally would continue to rise,and the ASIR and disease burden of PD in China would still be higher than the global average. Conclusion China bears a heavy PD disease burden with a rapidly increasing incidence.Males and the elderly population are the key populations for PD prevention and control.In the future,considering population aging and the improvement of healthcare capacity,targeted measures including early screening of high-risk groups,risk factor control and chronic disease management for elderly patients should be enhanced to effectively alleviate the public health burden caused by PD.

Key words: Parkinson’s disease, burden of disease, predictive analysis

中图分类号:

R742.5

赵自豪, 魏涛华, 杨文明, 钱南南, 宋宇琪, 王玮琦, 李杨阳, 徐福琳. 1990~2021年中国帕金森病疾病负担分析及2035年预测:与全球的对比分析^*[J]. 华中科技大学学报（医学版）, 2026, 55(3): 378-386.

Zhao Zihao, Wei Taohua, Yang Wenming et al. Burden of Parkinson’s Disease in China from 1990 to 2021 and Projections to 2035: A Comparative Analysis with Global Data[J]. Acta Medicinae Universitatis Scientiae et Technologiae Huazhong, 2026, 55(3): 378-386.

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1990~2021年中国帕金森病疾病负担分析及2035年预测:与全球的对比分析^*

Burden of Parkinson’s Disease in China from 1990 to 2021 and Projections to 2035: A Comparative Analysis with Global Data

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