Burden of Parkinson’s Disease in China from 1990 to 2021 and Projections to 2035: A Comparative Analysis with Global Data

doi:10.3870/j.issn.1672-0741.25.07.033

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To analyze the trends of Parkinson’s disease(PD)burden in China from 1990 to 2021,compare them with global levels,and predict the epidemic trend of PD in 2035,to provide a scientific basis for formulating PD prevention and control strategies. Methods Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021(GBD 2021).The age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate(ASDR)were selected as core indicators.The Joinpoint regression model was applied to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC),and the Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was used to predict the disease trend in 2035. Results From 1990 to 2021,the ASIR for PD in China increased at a significantly faster rate than the global average,reaching 24.34 per 100000 person-years in 2021,which was 1.56 times the global average;the ASIR in males was approximately 1.5 times that in females.The overall ASMR of PD in China showed a downward trend(AAPC=-0.6186,P<0.01),with a value of 5.03 per 100000 person-years in 2021,slightly higher than the global level of 4.81 per 100000 person-years.The gender difference in mortality shifted from higher in females at the beginning to higher in males at the end of the study period.The disease burden of PD in both China and globally was concentrated in the 70-75 years age group,and the mortality rate of the population aged ≥85 years in China increased significantly(nearly threefold in males and more than double in females).The model prediction showed that by 2035,the number of incident cases,ASMR and ASDR of PD in China and globally would continue to rise,and the ASIR and disease burden of PD in China would still be higher than the global average. Conclusion China bears a heavy PD disease burden with a rapidly increasing incidence.Males and the elderly population are the key populations for PD prevention and control.In the future,considering population aging and the improvement of healthcare capacity,targeted measures including early screening of high-risk groups,risk factor control and chronic disease management for elderly patients should be enhanced to effectively alleviate the public health burden caused by PD.

Key words: Parkinson’s disease, burden of disease, predictive analysis

CLC Number:

R742.5

Zhao Zihao, Wei Taohua, Yang Wenming et al. Burden of Parkinson’s Disease in China from 1990 to 2021 and Projections to 2035: A Comparative Analysis with Global Data[J]. Acta Medicinae Universitatis Scientiae et Technologiae Huazhong, 2026, 55(3): 378-386.

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